Based on recent history, Mitt Romney's selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate dooms his candidacy for one simple reason: neither man is a DKE.
In the nine Presidential elections going back to 1976, seven of the GOP tickets have included at least one DKE. The GOP record in those elections is 5-2, a 71% winning percentage. The record of GOP tickets without a DKE? 0-2. The data:
1976: Gerald Ford, Omicron Chapter (University of Michigan)
1980: George H.W. Bush, Phi Chapter (Yale University)
1984: George H.W. Bush, Phi Chapter (Yale University)
1988: George H.W. Bush, Phi Chapter (Yale University), Dan Quayle, Psi Phi Chapter (DePauw University)
1992: George H.W. Bush, Phi Chapter (Yale University), Dan Quayle, Psi Phi Chapter (DePauw University)
1996: No DKEs
2000: George W. Bush, Phi Chapter (Yale University)
2004: George W. Bush, Phi Chapter (Yale University)
2008: No DKEs
2012: No DKEs
Lesser political analysts might point to 1996 and 2008 and attribute the GOP defeats to economic conditions that favored the Democrats, or the fact that in both cases the candidates were extinct volcanoes with no better justification for their candidacies than that it was their turn. But the data doesn't lie: the absence of DKEs clearly doomed Senators Dole and McCain to defeat.
While a Romney-Ryan victory is to be devoutly wished for, the historical record of DKE-free Republican tickets is not encouraging.
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